Datasheet · Cohort LTV report

How to read Cohort LTV

Everyone who became a client in the same month is followed through their whole life with us, month by month. This report answers one question: how much is a client worth, and how long does it take them to become worth it?

The idea

One row = one month's new clients, followed for life

Take everyone who first paid us in June 2026 — 212 people. That group is a cohort, and it gets one row. The row then tracks what those same 212 people go on to spend, for as long as they keep spending.

M1
£33.62
their first month — the month they joined
M2
£15.21
what the same people spent the month after
M3
and so on, for twelve months
M13+
the tail
everything after year one, in one lump

M1 is not January

This is the single thing people get wrong. The columns are months of life, not calendar months. M1 means "the cohort's own first month", which is a different calendar month for every row. That's what makes the rows comparable — you're always lining up like with like.

CohortJan 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026May 2026
Jan 2026 row M1M2M3M4M5
Mar 2026 row M1M2M3

Both rows have an M1. They just happen in different calendar months. Comparing M1 to M1 tells you whether March's clients started stronger than January's.

The money

What "net-25 LTV per client" actually means

Every number in the grid is the same thing: our 25% share, divided by the number of clients in the cohort. Two steps, both worth understanding.

Step one — our 25%

When a client pays for therapy, most of that money goes to the therapist. We keep 25%. So a cohort that generated £28,500 of bookings shows up here as £7,125. This report never shows the gross figure — it shows what the business actually keeps.

Step two — per client

That 25% is then divided by the cohort's headcount, so a 212-client month and a 46-client month can be compared fairly. Every cell is "per one client".

£7,127
our 25% from the June 2026 cohort, month one
÷
212
clients in that cohort
=
£33.62
the M1 cell you see on the report
The four cards at the top are the same idea rolled up. Avg total LTV £124.70 means: across the cohorts shown, the average client has been worth £124.70 to us so far. "So far" is doing real work in that sentence — young cohorts drag it down because they haven't finished earning yet.
Two tabs

Monthly is "that month". Cumulative is "so far".

Same data, two questions. The tab you want depends on what you're asking.

Monthly£38.68 · £30.44 · £23.49

Use it to see the shape of decay

Each cell is just that month's earnings. The numbers fall away as clients finish or lapse. Good for spotting a month where retention held up unusually well.

Cumulative£38.68 · £69.12 · £92.61

Use it to see what a client is worth

Each cell is the running total. This is the one to read if you're asking "what has this cohort been worth per client by now?" It only ever goes up.

Those are the real January 2026 figures. Monthly M3 is £23.49; cumulative M3 is £92.61 — the same three months, added up instead of listed.
The colours

What the shading is telling you

Four different cell treatments, four different meanings. None of them are decoration.

£38.68

Darker blue = more money

Shading is relative to the biggest cell on screen. It's there so you can see the M1 column dominating without reading a single number.

£13.39

Green = the cohort is in profit

From this month on, the cohort has earned back what it cost to win — ads plus placement shifts, divided by new clients. Only cohorts from March 2026 have a known cost, so only those can turn green.

·

Grey dot = hasn't happened yet

Not zero. The cohort simply hasn't lived through this month. A June 2026 cohort has no M5 because May 2026 wasn't in its future.

Dash = lived it, earned nothing

The month happened and brought in no revenue. This is a real, meaningful zero — worth noticing when it appears early in a cohort's life.

The green definition is identical to the one on the Cohort payback report. If the two ever disagreed, one of them would be wrong — they share the definition on purpose.
The M6 and M12 columns

Where a young cohort is heading

The last two columns hold each cohort's cumulative value at six months old and twelve months old. Sometimes that's a fact. Sometimes it's a forecast. The report always tells you which.

£123.62

Plain figure = what actually happened

The cohort has completed that month, so this is real money, counted. January 2026's clients were worth £123.62 each by their sixth month.

~£94.98

Italic with a ~ = a forecast

The cohort hasn't got there yet. This is where it's heading, based on how comparable cohorts grew from the same age. It will be replaced by the real figure in time.

How the forecast is made

It is arithmetic on past cohorts, not a prediction model and not AI. Three steps:

1. Find the cohorts that genuinely reached the target month. 2. For each one, work out how much it grew from the age our young cohort is now, to the target. 3. Take the middle value of those growth figures and apply it.

£57.21
May 2026's real cumulative after 2 complete months
×
1.66
median growth from month 2 to month 6, across 6 mature cohorts
=
~£94.98
the M6 forecast on the report

Middle value, not average. One cohort that behaved strangely can drag an average a long way. Taking the middle of the six keeps a single odd month from setting the forecast for everyone.

Which cohorts the forecast leans on

The report names them in its own footnote, so the number is always auditable. It uses the six most recent cohorts that reached the target and had at least 20 clients — the size floor matters because a cohort of four people produces per-client figures that swing wildly.

Jan 2026 Dec 2025 Nov 2025 Oct 2025 Sept 2025 Aug 2025 Jan 2025 · 5 clients

Recent cohorts only, on purpose. If retention improves, a forecast built on three years of history would be anchored to how we used to perform. A rolling window follows the improvement instead.

Nothing appears in the first two months

A cohort with one month behind it hasn't shown you anything yet — forecasts from that little data swing by tens of pounds. So the columns stay empty until a cohort has two complete months. July and June 2026 show nothing at all; May 2026 is the youngest cohort with a forecast.

A month that's still running counts as unfinished

This one looks odd until you know why. February 2026's sixth month is the month we're in right now — half-counted. So the grid shows £98.15 of part-month revenue, while the M6 column forecasts ~£101.48. The column is refusing to call a part-month figure "final". Once the month closes, it becomes the real number.

The forecast will understate a genuinely improving cohort. The growth rates come from older cohorts, so if today's clients stay with us longer than 2025's did, the real figure will beat the forecast. This is built into the method and cannot be removed — only narrowed, by keeping the window recent. Treat forecasts as a floor with a lag, not a target.
Honest limits

Four things to hold while reading

The newest month is always still filling

Every row's last live cell is the current month, part-way through. It rises until month end — never read it as final.

±

Small cohorts swing hard

Early-2025 cohorts have 5–30 clients. One client booking a long course moves the whole per-client figure. Weight your reading by the Clients column.

M13+ is a lump, not a curve

Everything past year one is pooled into one cell. You can't see whether it arrived in month 14 or month 30.

~

A forecast is not a commitment

The M12 forecasts currently lean on four cohorts from early 2025, when we were a much smaller business. Useful for ranking cohorts against each other; not a number to plan cash against.

The actuals reconcile to source. The same cohort figures appear on the Cohort payback and New clients reports, from one shared table underneath — checked to the penny.